Sotirios Dimopoulos
Russia's military intervention in Syria, although it had implicitly
announced through the massive transfer of Russian weapons and military personnel
to Syria, has provoked a worldwide impression. During the past decades, Russia,
as well as Soviet Union, had maintained a rather cautious stance on the Middle
Eastern affairs. The risky decision of Vladimir Putin of the mission of the Russian
army on a battlefield, far from the “near abroad”, represents a substantial
shift in the Russian foreign policy. In any case, this step undertaken by the
Russian president will have a serious impact on the global balance of power.
However, what were the underlying motives behind this move, and what
Putin seeks to obtain through Russian involvement in the Syrian bloody war?
Bellow, we summarize possible motives behind this decision.
1.
The vital necessity to protect, at all costs, its
military presence in the Eastern Mediterranean Region. So far, Assad’s regime is
the only one that might ensure Russian unimpeded activity in the Middle East.
But recently, this foothold was found on the verge of being lost, due to the
rapid advance of Islamist armed groups. Both in central areas, dominating by
Daesh, and in northwest part of country, where al-Qaeda affiliated groups are fighting
against the Syrian government had gained significant positions at the expense
of Syrian Arab Army (SAA). In August 2015, Islamic Factions “Al-Nusra Front”,
“Jaish al-Fatah”(Army of Conquest) and other small groups, as well as the “Free
Syrian Army”, well equipped by the West, Gulf countries and Turkey, threatened
Latakia, where Alawites constitute the majority. Islamists could reach the
Mediterranean coast in a few days. For the rebels, gaining access to the sea was
a strategic goal, but for the Syrian president and for Russia it would constitute
a disaster. Tartus, in Latakia governorate, is the site of the last official
Russian military base, outside of the former Soviet Union area. So, for Moscow
last option to defend its geostrategic interests in Syria remained to start a
military intervention in the Syrian civil war, consisting mainly of air strikes
not only against ISIS but also “al-Nusra Front” and the “Army of Conquest”. The
strategic aim of Russian bombing is to enable SAA, Hezbollah and Iranian troops
to repel Islamic groups away from Latakia and Hama –if possible conquering
Idlib and Aleppo- and to seal the border with Turkey.
2.
The strong
Russian military presence in Syria will have as a result Moscow to be a key
player throughout the Eastern Mediterranean Sea, defeating US efforts to oust
the Russians from the Balkan Peninsula, Middle East and Cyprus –No doubt that
one of the objectives of the new, under consultation, “Annan Plan”, is to
reduce Russian influence on the island. But after the Russian military
intervention in Syria, Moscow’s interests in region cannot be ignored.
3.
The crucial problem with jihadists from the Russian
Federation, fighting in Syria. In September 2015, approximately 2.500 Russian
nationals and 7.000 citizens of other post-Soviet republics were fighting
alongside the ISIS. For instance a former sergeant in the Georgian Army Abu
Omar al-Shishani serves as a commander for the “ISIS”. The Chechen-led Jaish
al-Muhajireen wal-Ansar was cooperating with the “Al-Nusra Front”. Returning
home all these Islamic veterans will be a permanent threat for the Russian
state. Therefore, it would be more prudent to neutralize the enemy before
returning.
4.
The apparent “inability” of the International
Coalition against ISIS, led by USA, to restrain jihadists. Coalition airstrikes
haven’t, so far, degraded ISIL’s capabilities. Even worse, Turkey has launched
an offensive, with fighter aircraft, against the rebel Kurdistan Workers Party
(PKK), which is a mortal enemy of ISIS. However, the brutal behavior of Daesh
fighters has caused worldwide indignation, and the world community has been
preparing to welcome any contribution in the struggle against the new-barbarians,
demanding an end to the bloodshed. Therefore, the complaints against the recent
military intervention in Syria by Russia are very difficult to be considered non-hypocritical.
This is the main reason behind anti-Russian outcry focusing on the accusation
that Russian aircrafts are bombarding exclusively the moderate opposition’s
positions. –which no one knows where it is or who its leader is.
5.
The migrant and refugee crisis have provoked a number
of reactions in Central and West Europe, and serious disputes have arisen among
the EU state-members about the way to tackle the crisis. Russian intervention
in Syria could create favorable conditions for the faster solution of the
problem or at least suspension of the influx of immigrants to Europe. Until the
end of the war in Syria and the defeat of jihadists the exodus will be
unstoppable. These feelings among European peoples weaken the aggressive policy
against Syria, followed by London and Paris that both dream a world back in
Sykes-Picot era.
6.
Common interests in the zone of Shi’ite influence, stretching
from Lebanon to Iran with Lebanon’s Hezbollah, Syria’s Alawites, Iraq’s Shiites
and Islamic Republic of Iran (this zone can be extended to Yemen’s Houthis).
The international nuclear agreement with Iran has helped Moscow to further the
cooperation with Teheran and Russian military intervention has forged a new
Iranian-Russian alliance. With Russia providing air support, bombing rebels
from above, the arrival of Iranian Special Forces will be playing a decisive role
on the ground. At the same time, Iraqi Shiite lawmakers and militia leaders
urged the government to allow Russian air force to carry out airstrikes on ISIS
positions in Iraq. For the time being, Moscow, will not accept this request, as
Russia does not want to move against American interests in Iraq. But Iraq
signed an intelligence-sharing agreement with Russia, and Russia’s generals
established an operational room with Iran and Syria inside Baghdad’s Green
Zone. Moreover Russia fired missiles from the Caspian Sea through Iraqi
airspace en route to Syria, while Iraqi officials even discussed the prospect
of giving to the Russians an airbase. A potential ally for Moscow in the region
is the Syrian Kurds. The leader of the Syrian Kurds Salih Muslim (Democratic
Union Party-PYD) announced his willingness to cooperate with Russia and Bashar
al-Assad, against ISIS. Moreover, Syrian Kurds support Russian military action
in Syria, as Moscow had promised that it would respond to any Turkish
intervention, which Kurds are afraid of. Instead, Russia has responded by
inviting Kurdish representatives –from People’s Protection Units (YPG),
ideologically linked to the PKK- to the established intelligence sharing centre
of the Russia/Iraq/Iran/Lebanese Hezbollah alliance. After the war, Moscow
would hail an autonomous Kurdish region in Rojava along Turkish-Syrian borders
–though without access to Mediterranean coastal strip.
7.
Kremlin officials have noticed disagreements inside
the US government, among the White House, State Department, Pentagon and powerful
and influential groups within the realms of business and politics, on what to
do about Syria and the war against ISIS. Before a year, American president
pushed Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel out of his job, with White House officials
citing disagreements over Iraq and Syria policy. Different voices were echoed
over the Ukrainian issue and the deal with Iran, as well. But for Obama the
real nightmare is to repeat the “Libyan story”. US’s intervention in Libya was a
failure, as country devolved into a failed state and serves as a safe haven for
militias affiliated with both al Qaeda and the ISIS.
On its part, the State
Department had tried to push back the Russian moves, by asking Bulgaria and
Greece to deny overflight permissions to Syria-bound Russian transport planes.
But Obama didn’t even know about these moves in advance, and when he found out,
he was upset with the department for not having a more complete process to
respond to the crisis. For the US the options available are to try to confront
Russia inside Syria or, as some in the White House are advocating, cooperate
with Russia there on the fight against the Islamic State. In this context, a
secret deal between Putin and Obama about the future of Syria would not be
excluded as a “conspiracy theory”.
8.
Regaining control over Central Asia. Russia has been
pushing its military presence across the region. Moscow justifies building up
military presence in the region by highlighting the threat Central Asia and
Russia are facing from Afghanistan and beyond. Putin at the Dushanbe summit of
the Collective Security Treaty Organization in September said that “there is a
growing threat that terrorist and extremist groups can penetrate into
territories that border Afghanistan” (Afghanistan shares a border with three Central Asian countries:
Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan).
Russia has
announced an increase in troops in Tajikistan, its largest foreign base, from
5.900 to 9.000 soldiers by 2020, and concluded deals with Tajikistan and
Kyrgyzstan to extend its bases till 2042 and 2032 respectively. Leaders of
Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), during the summit in Kazakhstan in
October, are expected to sign a concept of military co-operation until 2020.
9.
Ukraine is, always, one of Russia’s vulnerable spots
and Western is constantly using the Ukrainian crisis to impose sanctions, bans
and asset freezes against Russia. The annexation of Crimea and the civil war in
Donetsk and Lugansk, East Ukraine, constitute the ground of the disinformation
campaigns and of the dominant Western narrative on Russia and the Russian
threat. With one bright move on the chessboard, Putin has changed the agenda
and downgraded the Ukrainian conflict. The Russian president showed up at the
United Nations for the first time in a decade, proposing a coalition battling
ISIS away from America’s grip and, as CNN reported ‘‘Vladimir Putin steals
Barack Obama’s thunder on the world stage’’. Ukrainian president Petro
Poroshenko, from now on, has a very complicated duty to find new ways to bring
attention back to Kiev’s conflict with Russia, which has been losing urgency
amid a host of other crises in the Middle East.
10.
Russia seeks to form a wider coalition by joining
forces with China. Beijing has an interest in strengthening its military
presence in the Middle East and in Mediterranean Sea. There is participation of
1.000 Chinese peacekeepers under the UN flag in Lebanon and China plans to post
units in Iraq and Afghanistan. Moreover China’s concern about the threat presented
by Uighur terrorist group, known as the Turkistan Islamic Party, is growing,
which captured a Syrian air force base. If, when and how –for instance within
the framework of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization- Chinese forces will have
undertake joint military action along with the Russians in Syrian war is
premature to foresee.
